This ‘Wide Common‘ as described by Alfred Thayer Mahan, has for thousands of years connected nations and influenced peoples through spread of customs, cultures, traditions, languages and trade.
NITISARA Strategic Insights, October 2023 Edition
Author: Rear Admiral Mukul Asthana, Veteran, Senior Advisor, NITISARA
Introduction
Today, the international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of over 90% of world’s cross-border trade. Shipping is the lifeblood of global economy as it remains the cheapest and most efficient method of transporting goods over long distances. On the other hand, considered a high-value industry, air cargo is critical for serving markets that demand higher speed for transport of perishable cargoes and swifter deliveries of goods. In comparison though, the volume of air cargo is considerably lesser than shipments by sea.
The Seaborne trade has always been integral to Asia’s economic growth. The Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) serve as strategic highways that provide nations with access to resources in faraway lands. SLOCs are specially relevant to every nation’s energy requirements as vast amounts of oil and gas are shipped through these. Consequently, SLOC protection is a crucial precondition for the sustenance and growth of regional economies.
Securing the SLOCs in the IOR
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been an important trade arena for centuries. It remains the busiest trade corridor with approximately four-fifth of world’s oil and gas shipments and one-third of bulk cargoes passing through it, ensuring global access to food, precious metals and energy resources. It is estimated that almost 90,000 vessels carrying 80% of world’s maritime oil and 9.84 trillion tonnes of cargo, traverse every year through the Indian Ocean, and move through its choke points for destinations in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. In 2022, the Indian Ocean rim reported over USD 7 trillion in total trade.
The IOR is home to 33 nations and 2.9 billion peoples. Given the region’s importance, many countries around the world collaborate with regional partners to maintain open access to the Indian Ocean’s critical waterways and natural resources. For decades however, the IOR has been erroneously studied through a ‘Land Centric’ mindset; that of continental division of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, but to understand it’s true importance and strategic advantages, it must be viewed as one continuous theatre.
Choke Points in IOR
The IOR is home to four major choke points namely the Malacca Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Mozambique Channel. Every day over 36 million barrels of oil, about 40% of global oil produced, transit through these narrow waterways. Because these choke points are so vital to international trade, even a limited disruption could have drastic impacts on global shipping. More so, disruption of any one of them could impact the volume of traffic for other choke points, thus magnifying economic and security imperatives in these vulnerable areas. Recent example is the March 2021 six day blockage of Suez Canal by MV Ever Given. While some ships did consider rerouteing via the Cape of Good Hope, those that decided to wait also faced late fee up to USD 30,000 per day per container.
The choke points in the IOR also hold great military and strategic importance. The ability to protect or disrupt safe transit of shipping through these constricted and shallow waterways provides significant leverage to a regional player. A nation’s ability to keep SLOCs free and open during peacetimes also allows it to disrupt these zones during conflict. For example, Iran has frequently used its sovereignty to threaten the Strait of Hormuz in response to sanctions imposed by the West. Closer home, Indian Navy’s manoeuvres off the Makran Coast and Sonmiani Bay during the 1999 Pakistani misadventure in Kargil, resulted in effective blockade of Karachi harbour preventing resupplies of essential energy and goods to Pakistan while also preventing it’s Navy to venture out to sea. Thus choke points in the IOR are critical to the economic progress and geopolitical security not only within the IOR but indeed the entire world.
Key Players in the IOR
India, Australia, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States have had a long history of economic development, diplomatic and military engagements throughout the IOR. While China is often considered the top emerging player, the UAE, Türkiye and Russia are also becoming evident as potential stakeholders in the region.
India’s Growing Role in the IOR
Blessed with being a peninsular nation with vast interests in the Indian Ocean, India is a responsible resident naval power in the IOR. With over 7500 km of coastline, 14500 km of navigable waterways, 212 active ports (12 government owned, and 200 immediate and minor ports) and 2.3 million sq km of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) India relies heavily on the Indian Ocean for commercial shipping, energy, transportation, trade, fishing, as also, oil and gas exploration, seabed mining and tourism. The Indian Navy identifies the entire Indian Ocean from the eastern coast of Africa to the Andaman Sea and upto 30 deg South parallel as its area of priority, underpinning its role as the first responder and the net security provider for its friends, partners, the shipping and fishing industries and indeed the entire sea going fraternity in the region.
India’s increased maritime posture and strategic investments throughout the IOR underline New Delhi’s contemporary strategic approach to the maritime domain, and the role it plays in India’s foreign policy engagements. India has a strong partnership with littoral and island nations in the IOR. It is also a major economic player and exports to 18 of the 33 countries in the region, and imports from several other countries including Australia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
With the above overarching imperatives, India continues to expand its military partnerships with its maritime neighbours. For example it signed a USD 50 million deal with Maldives in 2021, to support the country’s Coast Guard development and other security infrastructure projects. Additionally in 2022, Sri Lanka and India signed an MoU to establish a Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre, an agreement derived from India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) initiative. The Indian Navy works closely with the navies present in the IOR to ensure ‘Rules based Order’:
- Prevention of Maritime Crime,
- Piracy and Drug Smuggling,
- Small Arms Trafficking and Infringements to Climate Security,
- undertaking and coordinating Search & Rescue (SAR) and
- Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indian Ocean.
What is Next for the IOR
The IOR’s economic, political and security salience in the international stage is only going to increase in the coming decades. While many of the traditional players continue to expand their presence and activities in the region, the shifting geo-political paradigms have led to the emergence of new ones. These stakeholders are investing heavily in the IOR economically, politically and militarily, which is bound to impact the region’s security environment. The IOR’s influence on the global maritime agenda is swiftly and steadily growing, creating opportunities for small island and developing states to advance conversations about Blue Economy, Sovereignty, Climate Change, Commerce and Protection of SLOCs.
Conclusion
Given the economic opportunities, shipping lanes and energy resources, the IOR is well poised to remain the proverbial play ground for the world powers to play an even greater role in geopolitical competition over the next decades. Transnational conversations on maritime security and geopolitical competition in the region will be shaped by security imperatives such as Maritime Crime, Illegal Fishing, Drug Smuggling and Human Trafficking. On the other hand issues of Climate Change, Resilient Infrastructure, Disaster Response and Blue Economy will provide space for collaboration and cooperation among players, big and small. These contours shall chart the future course for strategic and military interactions between nations and shape the future of international trade and maritime shipping in and through the Indian Ocean Region.